NCAAF Cheat Sheet

Just some number crunching to show the quality of my win predictor model. You can double check these numbers by seeing the publicly available leaderboard.


Games start from Week 7 of the College Football Season and continue to the end of the season. 


Games are only included if they are not at a neutral site and are not predicted ending in a tie.


Overall W-L
  • 585-242 (70.7% Correct)

W-L by Season
  • 2023: 282-119 (70.3% Correct)
  • 2024: 303-123 (71.1% Correct)


W-L by Week
  • Week 7: 66-34 (66% Correct)
    • 2023: 29-23 (55.8% Correct)
    • 2024: 37-11 (77.1% Correct)

  • Week 8: 74-30 (71.2% Correct)
    • 2023: 37-12 (75.5% Correct)
    • 2024: 37-18 (67.3% Correct)

  • Week 9: 68-33 (67.3% Correct)
    • 2023: 34-18 (65.4% Correct)
    • 2024: 34-15 (69.4% Correct)

  • Week 10: 66-39 (62.9% Correct)
    • 2023: 39-21 (65% Correct)
    • 2024: 27-18 (60% Correct)

  • Week 11: 83-26 (76.1% Correct)
    • 2023: 43-18 (70.5% Correct)
    • 2024: 40-8 (83.3% Correct)

  • Week 12: 86-28 (75.4% Correct)
    • 2023: 48-14 (77.4% Correct)
    • 2024: 38-14 (73.1% Correct)

  • Week 13: 84-34 (71.2% Correct)
    • 2023: 48-12 (80% Correct)
    • 2024: 36-22 (62.1% Correct)

  • Week 14: 48-16 (75% Correct)
    • 2024: 48-16 (75% Correct)

W-L by xMargin
  • 1 to 3: 157-99 (61.3% Correct)
  • 4 to 7: 183-87 (67.8% Correct)
  • 8 to 10: 109-31 (77.9% Correct)
  • 11 to 14: 88-18 (83% Correct)
  • 15 to 21: 40-7 (85.1% Correct)
  • 22 or Higher: 9-0 (100% Correct)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Leaderboards

Here are the links to each leaderboard I currently have posted. Hopefully you can find what you need! MLB (1961-2024) MiLB (2022-2024) D1 (2022-2024) NCAAF xScores
Read more

Baseball Stats Glossary

I just want to give an explanation on how I calculate these stats so that you can understand what you are looking at and what the terms mean. Hope this helps! Glossary Contact Gap Power HR Power (Home Run Power) Walk Strikeout HIT (Hitting Ability) RUN (Running Ability) OVR (Overall Ability) OPS+ (Adjusted On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging) KEO (Self-Created Stat) MVP (Self-Created Predictor for MVP)  Math Behind The Numbers Contact For the Contact rating, I use a self-made statistic and it is called BIP/PA.    BIP stands for Balls in Play BIP/PA stands for Balls in Play per Plate Appearance BIP/PA = (Plate Appearances - Hit By Pitches - Walks - Strikeouts) ÷ Plate Appearances Contact = 100 * (Player's BIP/PA ÷ Average BIP/PA for that Year) Gap Power For the Gap Power rating, I use another self-made statistic and it is called Non-HR XBH% Non-HR stands for not a Home Run XBH stands for Extra Base Hits (2B, 3B, & HR) Non-HR XBH% is the amount of At-Bats that are 2Bs...
Read more

College Park Factors

I have calculated Park Factors for over 400 JUCO teams across the 3 NJCAA Divisions, the NWAC, the CCCAA, and D1 that played in the 2023 season to the present. Some teams have incomplete data, so their Park Factor is left blank. Park Factor Explanation For those who do not know what Park Factor is, I'll give a quick rundown. No two ballparks have the same dimensions, weather, etc. For example, Coors Field (home of the Colorado Rockies) has the highest altitude in the MLB. In turn, more runs are scored and it is a very hitter friendly ballpark. Sabermetricians, who are a lot smarter than me, were able to create a formula that could quantify whether a ballpark was pitcher or hitter friendly.  Formula I used the formula on Wikipedia which can be found  here . The only exception is that I did not multiply the main part of the formula by 100. It should be noted that since there were many games played at neutral sites, I counted them as road games. Scale    If th...
Read more