Posts

NCAAF Cheat Sheet

Just some number crunching to show the quality of my win predictor model. You can double check these numbers by seeing the publicly available leaderboard . Games start from Week 7 of the College Football Season and stop at the end of the regular season. Some games are predicted as ties and are not included in the dataset. Overall W-L 571-263 (68.5% Correct) W-L by Season 2023: 269-132 (67.1% Correct) 2024: 302-131 (69.7% Correct) W-L by Week Week 7: 70-32 (68.6% Correct) 2023: 33-20 (62.3% Correct) 2024: 37-12 (75.5% Correct) Week 8: 77-32 (70.6% Correct) 2023: 35-15 (70% Correct) 2024: 42-17 (71.2% Correct) Week 9: 74-30 (71.2% Correct) 2023: 36-14 (72% Correct) 2024: 38-16 (70.4% Correct) Week 10: 63-41 (60.6% Correct) 2023: 36-23 (61% Correct) 2024: 27-18 (60% Correct) Week 11: 77-35 (68.8% Correct) 2023: 40-23 (63.5% Correct) 2024: 37-12 (75.5% Correct) Week 12: 77-38 (67% Correct) 2023: 41-22 (65.1% Correct) 2024: 36-16 (69.2% Correct) Week 13: 91-33 (73.4% Correct) 2023: 48-15 (7...
Post a Comment
Read more

Code

MLB  (Hitting, Pitching, & Fielding) Downloadable CSVs for: Individual Player Stats Standard Advanced Cumulative Value Ratio Neutralized Win Probability Pitch Tracking MiLB  (Hitting, Fielding, and Park Factors) Downloadable CSVs for the 3 mentioned above D1 Baseball & Softball  (Hitting & Pitching) Downloadable CSVs for: Individual Player Stats Strength of Schedule Park Factors
Post a Comment
Read more

My MLB MVP Predictor

One of my favorite stats that I have created is the rating which attempts to predict the MVP (for hitters only). If you want to see the numbers behind the rating (and all other ratings), you can click  here . You can access the fully interactive leaderboard that has the MVP rating to prove I am not a liar click  here . Most of you might not be too concerned with the math, but want to see the accuracy of this rating. Without further ado, here are the results since 2021! American League 2023 Predicted MVP Winner: Shohei Ohtani Actual MVP Winner: Shohei Ohtani 2022 Predicted MVP Winner: Aaron Judge Actual MVP Winner: Aaron Judge 2021 Predicted MVP Winner: Shohei Ohtani Actual MVP Winner: Shohei Ohtani National League 2023 Predicted MVP Winner: Matt Olson Actual MVP Winner: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Predicted 2nd) 2022 Predicted MVP Winner: Paul Goldschmidt Actual MVP Winner: Paul Goldschmidt  2021 Predicted MVP Winner: Fernando Tatis Jr. Actual MVP Winner: Bryce Harper (Predicted 2n...
Post a Comment
Read more

College Park Factors

I do not believe that anybody has done this, but I have calculated Park Factors for over 400 JUCO teams across the 3 NJCAA Divisions, the NWAC, the CCCAA, and D1 that played in the 2022-23 (and for some divisions/conferences 2021-2022) season(s). Some teams have incomplete data, so their Park Factor is left blank. Park Factor Explanation For those who do not know what Park Factor is, I'll give a quick rundown. No two ballparks have the same dimensions, weather, etc. For example, Coors Field (home of the Colorado Rockies) has the highest altitude in the MLB. In turn, more runs are scored and it is a very hitter friendly ballpark. Sabermetricians, who are a lot smarter than me, were able to create a formula that could quantify whether a ballpark was pitcher or hitter friendly.  Formula I used the formula on Wikipedia which can be found  here . The only exception is that I did not multiply the main part of the formula by 100. It should be noted that since there were man...
Post a Comment
Read more

Leaderboards

Here are the links to each leaderboard I currently have posted. Hopefully you can find what you need! MLB (1961-2024) MiLB (2021-2024) D1 (2022-2024) NCAAF xScores
Post a Comment
Read more

Baseball Stats Glossary

I just want to give an explanation on how I calculate these stats so that you can understand what you are looking at and what the terms mean. Hope this helps! Glossary Contact Gap Power HR Power (Home Run Power) Walk Strikeout HIT (Hitting Ability) RUN (Running Ability) OVR (Overall Ability) OPS+ (Adjusted On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging) KEO (Self-Created Stat) MVP (Self-Created Predictor for MVP)  Math Behind The Numbers Contact For the Contact rating, I use a self-made statistic and it is called BIP/PA.    BIP stands for Balls in Play BIP/PA stands for Balls in Play per Plate Appearance BIP/PA = (Plate Appearances - Hit By Pitches - Walks - Strikeouts) ÷ Plate Appearances Contact = 100 * (Player's BIP/PA ÷ Average BIP/PA for that Year) Gap Power For the Gap Power rating, I use another self-made statistic and it is called Non-HR XBH% Non-HR stands for not a Home Run XBH stands for Extra Base Hits (2B, 3B, & HR) Non-HR XBH% is the amount of At-Bats that are 2Bs...
Post a Comment
Read more